Riverpark Short Term High Yield

Riverpark Short Term High Yield – Locomotive Breath1 In the frantic breath of locomotives The All Time Loser Runs To Death Oh, He Feels Pistons Scratching Steam bursting on old Charlie’s forehead snatches the steering wheel And the train won’t stop Again Oh there’s no way to slow down… No way to slow down No way to slow down

Describes the loss of control caused by unexpected, extreme events and the need to take full advantage of that possibility to move forward, which can describe today’s geopolitical and economic landscape. We expect significant volatility in our end of 2021 letter. However, this year’s events exceeded our expectations, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the ongoing challenges posed by inflation and supply chain bottlenecks. Capital preservation and investment success often depends on how the investor endures these periods and seeks to capitalize on them.

Riverpark Short Term High Yield

Riverpark Short Term High Yield

The yield curves above reflect the core of investor concerns. Starting in 2021 and lasting throughout the year, the “hot” US economy causes the unemployment rate to decrease steadily, wages increase, the demand for goods continues to increase, causing inflation. This has been exacerbated by supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages. The Federal Reserve actively expressed concern that inflation is no longer “temporary” and intends to pursue policy to prevent “runaway trains”. As such, the rise in yields in January and early February reflects the fact that the “Market Gentlemen” are well prepared for the Federal Reserve to begin to reverse expansionary monetary policy.

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. The market reacted quickly, but the typical “flight to quality” in US Treasuries did not happen. Why? Energy and food prices have risen sharply, raising fears that inflation could spiral out of control, as it did in the 1970s, as Russia and Ukraine act as major global producers. bridge. On March 16

True to its promise, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points and said it would raise rates at each of its meetings through the end of 2022 and possibly through 2023.

Ukraine/Russia – Commodity Price and Production Change B % Global Supply % Price Change 2021 1Q22 Copper 4.0% 25.2% 6.7% Aluminum 6.0% 41.8% 24.3 % Nickel 6.0% 24.9% 60.1% Sorghum % 1.8% 60.2% 1.8 (WTI) 11.0% 55.0% 33.3% Natural gas 17.0% 46.9% 51.3% Wheat 25, 6% 21.9% 29.9% Corn 14.3% 34.6% 25.8% Click here to enlarge

As discussed above, oil and gas prices skyrocketed after many Western countries blocked the purchase of energy produced in Russia, causing this energy to be excluded from the market. Food prices also increased significantly after the crop of Ukraine, which accounts for 8.0% and 13.2% of world wheat and corn exports, respectively.

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, respectively, the fight weakened greatly. Food prices are also affected by the increase in fertilizer, transportation and packaging costs associated with oil and gas prices. Although Russia is not a major producer of copper, aluminum and nickel, challenges to global supply caused by the war have raised their prices. In addition, the increase in palladium prices in the first quarter of 2022 represents lesser-known commodities such as helium, neon, argon, krypton and xenon, of which Russia and/or Ukraine are important suppliers. These gases are important inputs for high-tech products such as semiconductors, which are in short supply due to supply chain disruptions.

However, a portfolio consisting of individual investments is affected in different ways by changes in the economic and market environment. Below, we discuss the impact of some of these factors and our thoughts on some of the year-end positions in our portfolio and the drop in market value we’ve experienced. This will allow us to increase these positions in the first quarter of 2022.

Chobani is a leading health food company that manufactures, markets, and sells primarily Greek yogurt and yogurt products in the United States. The company’s yogurt product has a No. 1 market share and is actively leveraging its brand for supplements. We begin purchasing the 7.5% unsecured bond in March 2021 and continue through the year at an average price that will yield a 4.5% yield if the bond is settled on April 15. 2022 and yield 6.20% if held on April 15. /25 maturity

Riverpark Short Term High Yield

. Based on our analysis of the company, we conclude that it will continue to grow and net debt at a reasonable level of 6.1 times. We also like “pillows”

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Features of the bond, with the added bonus of being a much-rumored initial public offering that can generate a yield that allows for early redemption, thus increasing returns.

After a slight drop in revenue at the beginning of the pandemic, the company has achieved steady revenue growth in 2020 and 2021 thanks to bypassing the yogurt industry and successfully introducing several new products (ice cream, oat milk, etc.). EBITDA increase in 2020 mainly due to decrease in selling & administrative expenses, but level off in 2021 due to increase in marketing expenses and lower gross margin due to higher production input costs, including dairy prices , shipping and packaging, which is partially offset by lower other costs. Element. milk price

In Q1 22, which is reflected in the selling price of ice cream, a by-product of yogurt production. Like other yogurt makers, Chobani is raising prices through a combination of cash price increases, product size reductions and promotional discounts, with gross margin benefits likely to be realized in the second half of 2022. According to Nielsen data, in March 2022,

Yogurt sales are still strong, +9.2% year over year, despite a 7.7% increase in prices, suggesting that consumer demand is currently inelastic.

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During the first quarter of 2022, Chobani’s bond price fell from around 103 to just under 97, reflecting the view that an IPO and refinancing won’t happen. This is due to general interest rate increase, high-yield credit margin widening and investors’ concern that rising input costs may negatively affect the creditworthiness of the company. We bought the bond in 2021 with the expectation that the bond could be refinanced soon, but if that’s not the case, the yield will increase to compensate for the extension of the expected repayment date. we reach maturity, this is an acceptable outcome. At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the bond’s yield to maturity was 8.64%, compared with 6.20% a year earlier. Yields to maturity increased by 244 bps reflecting a 51 bps increase in credit spreads and a 193 bp change in interest rates. We remain happy with the credit: the brand has high customer loyalty, allows for product range expansion and, as suggested above, allows for some of the price increase to be passed on to consumers. At year-end, we estimate net debt at 6.3 times and interest expense in cash at 2.5 times. Although Chobani has experienced some credit crunch due to margin differentials, its liquidity is very high, its liabilities are nearing maturity and total debt is less than $1.4 billion, much lower. compared to an expected IPO of $10 billion.

Therefore, a drop in the market price provides an opportunity to increase the position with an attractive yield. If the market stabilizes so that Chobani can complete the IPO and use the proceeds to repay the bonds before the 2025 maturity date, the total yield will be higher than the current yield to maturity because of par discount. price will be removed in less time. On time.

Fresh Market is a chain of 159 medium-sized fresh food stores, 71% of sales are perishables (35% of traditional grocery stores). Its target customers are similar to Amazon-owned Whole Foods (AMZN). Fresh Market has particularly benefited from the strong growth of home eating caused by the pandemic. Despite a 10% drop in customer traffic due to consumers’ restrictions on going out, average transaction size increased 25% and same-store sales increased 22%. As a result, EBITDA nearly doubled year-on-year and the company reduced its debt from 6.7 times at the end of fiscal 2020 to 3.3 times at the end of the fiscal year ending January 2021. With a better credit profile, we start buying a 9.75% secured loan maturing May 1, 2023 in the first half of 2021. Yield to maturity for purchases made in the first half of 2021. early 2021 is more than 7.70%.

Riverpark Short Term High Yield

In the two years ending February 2022, the consumer price index of the domestic food group increased by 12.5%, driven by an increase of 18.9% in meat/poultry/fish/eggs and 11.3 increase in vegetables and fruits. %.

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Categories in which Fresh Market stands out. As shown above, the spread between retail and wholesale inflation turned negative in the first quarter of 2021, which means grocery margins narrowed. As a result, the recent spike in gas prices and food inflation means grocery stores face lower profit margins and the risk that consumers will shift their food spending to cheaper options.

In 2021, Fresh Market’s growth slows compared to the harsh 2020 calendar year, especially in the summer and fall when the pandemic is over and people want to leave their homes. As a result, Fresh Market’s transaction volume increased by 9.3% in the nine months ending October 2021, reflecting greater convenience for customers in stores, but same-store sales. row

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